Investment Management Blog - Montague Capital

Let’s see if we’ve got this straight.  The idea of financial markets is that they are supposed to be efficient processors of all available information and anticipate where the trend is headed.  How then do we make sense of yesterday’s surge on Wall Street, and the slavish imitation of European equity markets, to news that […]

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We only have a few hours to wait for the first official reasons, contained within the Quarterly Inflation Report, for why the Monetary Policy Committee did not raise rates in front of yesterday’s horrible inflation numbers.  CPI rose from 3.8% to 4.4% and RPI from 4.6% to 5.0%.  The official CIP target is supposed to […]

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At long, long last we have a piece of fundamentally good news.  Unfortunately, this story is both too complex for the whitesocks to understand and won’t be reflected in events today, so markets have all but ignored it.  Nevertheless, if it comes off, this stands to be one of the most significant developments the global […]

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Interesting (remarkable?) reading on the BBC website this morning on The Rocks six months. Not only does it remind us that one of the causes of their imploding was 125% mortgages but tells us how well they are doing at forcing its clients elsewhere.  So they made their business out of giving a mortgage not […]

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The latest CBI business confidence survey suggests that things are playing out as the Monetary Policy Committee would like, but that it is still a close call.  Exports have having a positive impact, as Sterling weakens, but profitability is under pressure.  As the CBI’s head of economic analysis summarised it, “The climb in oil and […]

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After two days spent swallowing any old optimistic tosh put in front of it, Wall Street returned its more customary diet of a reality sandwich yesterday.  CY07Q4 GDP growth was revised down from +0.6% to -0.2% and CY08Q1 growth from +1.0% to +0.9%.  But such ancient history was less important than the news that CY08Q2 […]

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It seems that we just can’t have a measured response to company news these days, in either the size or direction of the share price reaction.  There are very long gaps between the rare occasions when this note has anything kind to say about BT.  But the company didn’t entirely deserve the 12% caning it […]

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